I mean, let’s be honest, the fundamentals of the company didn’t change. They didn’t lose any business, they still have tons of contracts, orders, and revenue in the pipeline. Most importantly, CEO’s don’t really matter. In fact I can’t think of a single company that would go under if it’s CEO got fired, or just suddenly disappeared, especially Nvidia.
If anything this is a good buying opportunity, and worst case scenario is that they keep huang, which will add several months to the stocks rebound timeline. Best case scenario, they kick his ass out because he’s a distraction that can’t be trusted at this point, and they give the job to someone else, which will cause a sudden, massive rebound, because again, CEO’s don’t really matter or mean much when a company is doing well and is on solid footing at least for the near term.
The fundamentals did change… there’s now mounting public evidence that Nvidia committed crimes of illegal export and ceding the moat to China destroying their own narrative for urgency.
They are also the pick-and-shovel seller to companies living in corruption-fantasy-land, where reality and real figures don’t matter because the SEC is currently non-functional. Nvidia is giving those companies money to buy Nvidia chips. That is looking to change sometime next year. Since stocks are a reflection where people imagine business is and will be, and if that future includes political and criminal investigations, with or without Huang, that will get priced into the valuation.
Anyway I’m also not fond of the trend of how much the superstar CEO hypes a stock being the main decider of how stocks swing, but in this case this is more than just Huang’s personal failing and messing around. You could still be right, the stock can and probably would rebound after some time as if nothing happened.
In fact I can’t think of a single company that would go under if it’s CEO got fired, or just suddenly disappeared,
Musk, spcx
If anything I would think confidence in SpaceX would go up without musk.
Spacex is a scam, case and point, if the company would collapse without musk, it never had a viable business model to begin with. I’ll take my RKLB thank you very much
No, the company is firmly grounded in the leadership of Gwynne Shotwell. Elon sticks his dick in things and she does amazingly at keeping him from ruining too much.
There are significant concerns about the business side over the past few years, but if you think the rocketry innovation or Starlink are a scam… I’ll get you some grippy socks.
Spcx as a company is a massive AI business liability bolted onto a viable satellite internet business and an experimental but potentially successful rocket business. The former dwarfing the latter two in size. If they can decouple and let xAI die it can probably survive as a smaller company. If not, then it will likely, in my layman view, implode, and the satellite portion picked up by another company.
If not, then it will likely, in my layman view, implode, and the satellite portion picked up by another company.
The rocket portion needs picked up as well. Starlink satellites orbit inside the upper atmosphere and need replaced every 5 years or so, even when factoring in periodic boosts to their orbit from propulsion
Or it’s a terrible time to buy because the game is up and no one wants to be holding chips when the casino runs out of money. We’ll know in a year.
the game is up
It’s not over till it’s over.
If nothing else, NVIDIA is a ripe target for trillion dollar federal bailouts.
Nvidia as a company is in no danger of going under. Much of their manufacturing is done via 3rd party, including the chips which are fabbed in TSMC and Samsung’s fabs, so they have rather minor costs in terms of maintenance.
Their true value is in IP, R&D, and industry connections. Nvidia has overvalued stock, but there’s too much of a foundation in their business to not be profitable. The only risk to them is if all the circular financing pulled in enough outside loans that Nvidia couldn’t pay off the interest after the AI bubble bursts
I mean, I agree superficially. But I’ve got no idea what’s going on under the hood of their financials.
You could have said the same thing about AIG or Enron, if you didn’t know how much debt they were floating.
NVIDIA has a lot of balls in the air and a sudden sharp devaluation of their market cap could have all sorts of reciprocal effects on their cash flow. If nothing else, exposing a multi billion dollar business partner as being in open violation of US sanctions on export sales is really bad for their projected future growth.
Not the end of the world for NVIDIA. But it does throw up a ton of question marks about their future.
Why would they need it? They’re cash rich right now. Did a couple hundred billion in stock buybacks recently in fact.
They have nothing they’d ever need a trillion dollars for. Pre-AI their annual revenue was like 20 billion or so. They don’t have fabs, so no large capex loans to worry about
IMO those chips are going to be valuable no matter what. AI is a dipshit pipe dream that will lead to massive global instability and drive conflict. At that point nations will be scrambling for chips to power drone swarms, aircraft, missile systems, satellites, space ships, etc.
AI is just the catalyst to drive society to the brink of destruction. The purpose of the chips will change, but they still will be valuable and sought after.
Rich people don’t invest in the future they think will happen. They invest in the future they want to happen. What they want to happen is a large-scale cataclysmic event that will wipe out probably at least 50% of the Earth’s population. They don’t really fucking care because they’re going to be fine in their bunkers regardless, unless we change that.
If anything this is a good buying opportunity
I mean, maybe? Depends on whether NVIDIA can maintain a competitive edge through 2030.
A lot of their income stream is predicated on these symbiotic relationships with GPU consumers, most of whom haven’t been making money. They are effectively a central bank for AI expansion.
If the general market pulls back it’s support, it’s very easy to see NVIDIA hobbled by these enormous unpayable lines of credit, in the same way AIG was fatally wounded by the mortgage crash.
I think robotics and maybe even implants and stuff like that will arrive. Nvidia may currently make graphics cards but they will grow into many areas of tech.
Its a bit like Tesla but actually knowing their stuff.
I think robotics and maybe even implants and stuff like that will arrive
We’re definitely seeing progress. But it’s more progress in scale than technique. The little delivery vehicles you’re seeing running around town are the result of 5G+ Internet giving abysmally paid remote operators in The Philippines and Indonesia real time access to navigation in NYC and LA. And we’ve built factories that churn then out faster than any pizza business can recruit new human drivers.
You don’t need a $25k/unit NVIDIA GPU to operate one of those.
Its a bit like Tesla but actually knowing their stuff.
Tesla got big off the back of rapidly falling battery prices and the sudden spikes in gasoline.
The autopilot shit isn’t driving their business. Dirt cheap lithium batteries are what make them money.
