That’s easy, I just take a gander into my Linux Orb, and it reveals itself to me
Eventually someone will make it 100% idiot proof.
So a couple of weeks ago I finally had enough of windows and put linux mint on my laptop instead. I haven’t used linux since the early 90s and couldn’t remember much at all, was concerned I’d have trouble with drivers etc.
In fact the whole experience was a piece of piss. So easy. There were no urgent-seeming pop ups with arcane terms, no crashes or problems, I didn’t need to use the command prompt.
Then I was able to find and install the programmes I use easily too. Slack, steam, etc. Within maybe an hour I was able to do my work on the computer again. I kinda feel like I got my laptop back - windows was getting so buggy and aggravating that I had been avoiding using the machine.
If Linux wants a future in which it continues to grow, it needs to do more of this, appealing to the casual, non-technical user. Because we probably represent most of the market.
Mint, Manjaro, Fedora, Bazzite… there are plenty of beginner friendly distros these days!
windows was getting so buggy and aggravating
Also Microsoft convinced the people that system updates are a bad thing.
Bright. As it continues to grow, and MS gets more terrible I think desktop share will always increase.
I seriously worry about what happens when Linus decides to end his involvement though. I don’t keep up with the happens of the kernel devs but the thought of a split, takeover or power vacuum is a concern for me. Hopefully someone can assure me.
My exact concern too. Don’t see it as an imminent problem, but would like some sort of succession plan or even to develop some sort of framework to ensure the kernel endures after Linus stops being involved.
There is a continuity process at least https://github.com/torvalds/linux/commit/102606402f4f5943266160e263c450fdfe4dd981 Although it is mainly, here is the process to figure out the plan.
What amazes me is, that a formal official plan (this) is just done recently a few months ago. How was there no official plan before? I don’t understand…
Have you got a will?
Estimated 50% of adults don’t. There’s always a more pleasant task on the to-do list to be getting on with.WTF we are talking about Linux, the biggest and most important piece of software. What are you even talking about will and adults? Sorry if this was meant to be a joke. But having a plan like this is crucial important.
The point, is that people don’t like thinking about this subject, as evidenced by the fact that half of people don’t put plans in place even when it’s something as comparatively simple as a will unless they get more imminent prior warning. This is not a Linux kernel specific issue, Bram and vim being an obvious example. Something as potentially complicated as the Linux kernel succession? I can see why it wouldn’t be a subject the community was keen to tackle.
Just `man future` .
Seriously, RTFM.
/s jk, this comment brought to you by parody.
Through a monitor… probably customizable Vr based DE’s or something if I’m being real
Brighter than ever, thanks to Steam Deck and Microsoft’s general idiocy.
Linux would look great even if Microsoft didn’t help, but oh my god, does Microsoft help.
I see Linux being more and more widely adopted in Europe, for one. I imagine there will either be an ‘EU standardized’ distro forked to prevent any issues of interoperability between government systems. Hopefully, such a widespread adoption for PCs encourages more development for Linux from software devs.
10% desktop usage by 2040, possibly 2035 if Microslop keeps being Linux’s #1 marketer.
I think it’s going to be higher than that. I think a lot of counties will start rapidly migrating away from American software companies, and the only alternative is Linux. China will soon really start pushing out their own fully home-grown cheap PCs to the world with some flavor of Linux as the OS. American software companies won’t be able to compete.
Globally, I bet the desktop marketshare for various flavors of Linux is pushing 90% by 2040.
What I hope is every institution and company has a costum (or bought license to a costum) linux distro which is reliable and stable and fullfill their needs, without having to pay to bug tech nor share all their data with them, but instead a ecosystem where the companies has their own linux devs or IT-department for their linux instead of current SD departments with focus on microsoft environment. Smaller businesses or institutions should be able to buy IT equipment with preinstalled and supported distros to their need.
In future there will be a “next generation” Linux,
not microkernel, but also not so monolithic.
More modular subsystems, drivers will be easier to write.
Native sandboxing.
Deprecation of classic POSIX permissions, file ACL by default.
Rewritten network userspace tools,
everything could be declared in one file (like in the network equipment).
Yet another desktop server.
Desktop will respond near real-time.
Better audio experience, low latency by design, no more xruns.And more…
Depends where hardware will go. Like another architecture?How could the subsystems be more modular?
My understanding is almost everything in the kernel is modular outside of the schedular
So what your saying is 40 years of bike shedding. The more things change the more they stay the same
is this stuff being worked on?
Wow. Every word of that is frightening.
THE FUTURE IS NOW!
, old man.
Since I first learned about Linux I have never envisioned a future where Linux didn’t eventually take over essentially all operating system spaces and I still don’t. The question is how long will it take to get there.
But as others have said, I think the overall decline of desktop PC use combined with the just pure overall quality of Linux compared to Mac and Windows PCs in 2026 implies that the x86 PC space will become majority Linux within the next 10 years if not less.
I mostly agree, except I think there could be a new version of something that isn’t Linux if it gets that big.
Like today, just better? It’s likely still going to power most of the servers, 70% of smartphones, a lot of the embedded devices… And maybe desktop marketshare is going to rise a bit above the current 4%.
I think it’s going to start skyrocketing in global desktop use. Maybe not in the US, but globally lots of other countries have good reason to migrate away from US based software companies
My money is on 2027 as The Year Of The Linux Desktop.
My money is on 1999 as the year of the Linux desktop. I mean, that’s when I switched to Linux full time 🤷
Similarly, 2025 wasn’t the year of Linux desktop… but it was the year of Linux on my desktop.
Same here. Debian since Slink.
